Faraway Changes Can Dry Up Your Neighborhood: Nonlinear Impacts of New SSP Projections

by: Iman Haqiqi, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

First version: April 19, 2024

How to cite:

Haqiqi, I. (2024). Faraway Changes Can Dry Up Your Neighborhood: Nonlinear Impacts of New SSP Projections. I-GUIDE Platform. (DD-MM-YYYY). https://i-guide.io/platform/discovery/

Haqiqi, I., Bowling, L., Jame, S., Baldos, U., Liu, J. and Hertel, T., 2023a. Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States. Environmental Research Letters, 18(6), p.065007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd269

Abstract

This summary explores the findings of the SIMPLE-G model regarding the global drivers of local water stress in the United States. The key takeaway is that a significant portion, over half, of the projected future stress on US water resources originates from external factors – namely, rising incomes and populations overseas and their increased demand for food. This study suggest that continued technological growth and productivity improvement are necessary to moderate the pressure on local environmental resources.

Trading Away Our Water?

This research highlights the importance of understanding the complex global-to-local connections when analyzing water resource challenges. By recognizing these connections, we can anticipate how changes in climate and policies, even in faraway locations, can have a ripple effect on water availability in other areas. For example, climate change affecting agricultural production in the Middle East could lead to a rise in demand for US-produced food. Similarly, policy changes in Brazil could impact international markets, ultimately affecting US agriculture.

The relationship between global factors and local water stress is complex. Unsustainable water use practices have resulted in the rapid depletion of groundwater, which is a significant threat to local water security. As the water tables fall, there can be a cascade of negative impacts such as:

1. Reduced access to drinking water: As groundwater reserves dwindle, wells supplying drinking water for communities can run dry, endangering human health and well-being.

2. Disrupted agricultural production: Agriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater, and in many regions, reliance on groundwater is substantial. The depletion of groundwater can significantly affect crop yields, leading to food insecurity and price volatility.

3. Environmental degradation: Groundwater depletion can disrupt delicate ecosystems that depend on subterranean water flows. This can have cascading effects on biodiversity, wetland health, and overall environmental stability.

4. Land subsidence: In severe cases, the loss of groundwater support can cause the land surface to sink, leading to infrastructure damage and economic losses.

This emphasizes the need to understand the global drivers that contribute to local water stress, and this understanding can empower us to formulate proactive strategies for sustainable water management. This knowledge can inform policies that promote water conservation practices in agriculture, encourage technological advancements for efficient water use, and foster international cooperation to address this shared challenge.

Nonlinear impacts

Many existing studies assume a linear relationship between changes in population, income, and their effect on distant water and land use, which oversimplifies the situation. The SIMPLE-G model incorporates three key market-mediated responses that introduce non-linearity:

1. Shifts in International Trade: Changes in global demand can trigger adjustments in international trade patterns, which can affect how much water-intensive agriculture occurs within the US.

2. Production Location Shifts: Rising demand might incentivize agricultural production to relocate within a specific region, potentially reducing the burden on US water resources.

3. Local Adjustments: Faced with changing market conditions, individual locations can adapt by modifying their crop mix, irrigation practices, and technological advancements, all of which can influence water usage.

This summary explores the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Faraway Changes Can Dry Up Your Neighborhood: Nonlinear Impacts of New SSP Projections." The manuscript uses the SIMPLE-G model to demonstrate the non-linear ways in which distant changes can exacerbate local water stress.

Multi-sector Dynamcis

From a multi-sector dynamics (MSD) perspective, this study on global drivers of local water stress holds significant value. Understanding how international factors influence US water demands necessitates examining the interconnectedness of land use, natural resources, ecosystems, and human infrastructure. Rising overseas food demands could translate to increased pressure on US agricultural land, potentially impacting natural ecosystems and biodiversity. Water stress could also ripple through urban areas, limiting water availability for essential services and energy production.

By incorporating these complex interactions, the SIMPLE-G model sheds light on the multifaceted challenges arising from global water scarcity, informing efforts to promote sustainable land and water management, ecosystem health, and resilient energy and water infrastructure across all sectors.

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by:

DOE PCHES: The U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141.

NSF I-GUIDE: The National Science Foundation, Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment under award No. HDR-2118329.

NSF AccelNet: The National Science Foundation, GLASSNET: OISE-2020635.