Policy Analysis of Rooftop Solar Incentives in MA

Code written for CAS EE 508: Data Science for Conservation Decisions, Boston University fall 2021.

Note of limitations of work (as of May 2022): As I learned more about spatial statistics and modeling more generally, I have realized that this work is incomplete. In particular, I did not deal adequately with the change of support problem, specifically for joining the rooftop PV and income data. I have also since discovered limits to the American Community Survey (ACS) census income data, which are described in more detail here (US Census Bureau, 2009). I hope to return to this project at a later date to tackle it in a more statistically rigorous way. For now, please keep in mind these limitations.

Background

This analysis attempts to determine which incentives are more effective in encouraging the adoption of rooftop solar PV systems in Massachusetts, and specifically 4 study locations: Newton, West Roxbury, Hyde Park, and Milton.

Data

• Existing PV installations in MA, provided by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, which includes all solar PV systems fully registered in the Production Tracking System (PTS), current as of May 2021. From these data, I extracted the PV systems that were listed as: residential; multi-family residential; mixed-use (commercial & residential); and that were not third-party owned in the study locations: “PV in PTS Public Records Request.” Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, May 2021. https://www.masscec.com/public-records-requests.

• Boundaries of MA by town and zipcode, provided by MassGIS. From these, I extracted the zipcodes included in the study locations: MassGIS (Bureau of Geographic Information), Commonwealth of Massachusetts EOTSS, accessed 12/09/2021.

• Roofprints of MA buildings larger than 150 sq ft, provided by MassGIS: MassGIS (Bureau of Geographic Information), Commonwealth of Massachusetts EOTSS, accessed 12/09/2021.

• Photovoltaic Electricity Potential data for the USA, provided by SolarGIS (PVOUT, map 1): © 2020 The World Bank, Source: Global Solar Atlas 2.0, Solar resource data: Solargis.

• ShopSolarKits. “300-Watt Solar Panels: Everything You Need to Know,” December 14, 2021. https://shopsolarkits.com/blogs/learning-center/300-watt-solar-panels.

• climatemps. “Sunshine & Daylight Hours in Boston, Massachusetts, USA.” Accessed January 8, 2022. https://www.boston.climatemps.com/sunlight.php.

• Household income data by MA block group (2015-2019), provided by NHGIS: Steven Manson, Jonathan Schroeder, David Van Riper, Tracy Kugler, and Steven Ruggles. IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System: Version 16.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS. 2021. http://doi.org/10.18128/D050.V16.0.

• 2019 federal tax brackets by annual income, provided by CreditKarma: Pimplaskar, Evelyn. “2019 Tax Brackets: Things to Know: Credit Karma Tax®.” Credit Karma, 7 Dec. 2020, https://www.creditkarma.com/tax/i/2019-tax-brackets-things-to-know.

• Massachusetts income tax rate, provided by the Tax Foundation: “Massachusetts Tax Rates & Rankings: MA State Taxes.” Tax Foundation, Tax Foundation, https://taxfoundation.org/state/massachusetts/.

• eGRID CO2-equivalent emissions estimates for MA electricity generated, provided by the EPA: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2021. “Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID), 2019” Washington, DC: Office of Atmospheric Programs, Clean Air Markets Division. Available from EPA’s eGRID web site: https://www.epa.gov/egrid.

• National average cost of PV systems in $/W, provided by EnergySage: Marsh, Jacob. “How Much Do Solar Panels Cost in 2022?: Energysage.” How Much Do Solar Panels Cost?, EnergySage, 4 Jan. 2022, https://news.energysage.com/how-much-does-the-average-solar-panel-installation-cost-in-the-u-s/.

• Existing incentive programs for residential rooftop PV adoption in Massachusetts, provided by MASSCEC: “Incentives and Programs.” MASSCEC, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, 14 July 2021, https://www.masscec.com/solar-incentives-and-programs.

• Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Program incentive details, provided by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and Eversource:

  • “SMART Incentive Program.” Eversource, Eversource, https://www.eversource.com/content/ema-c/residential/save-money-energy/explore-alternatives/learn-about-solar-energy/smart-program.
  • “Capacity Block, Base Compensation Rate, and Compensation Rate Adder Guideline.” | Mass.gov, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, https://www.mass.gov/doc/capacity-block-base-compensation-rate-and-compensation-rate-adder-guideline-2.
  • United States, Congress, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. Guideline Regarding Low Income Generation Units, 225 CMR 20.00, p. 2. SOLAR MASSACHUSETTS RENEWABLE TARGET PROGRAM.

Other Sources

• Borenstein, Lucas, and Lucas Davis W. “The Distributional Effects of US Clean Energy Tax Credits.” Tax Policy and the Economy 30, no. 1 (2016). https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/685597.

• Barbose, Galen, L., Naim Darghouth R., Hoen Ben, and Ryan Wiser H. “Income Trends of Residential PV Adopters: An Analysis of Household-Level Income Estimates.” Electricity Markets & Policy. Berkeley Lab, April 2018. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/income-trends-residential-pv-adopters

• Tong, James, and Alison Mickey. “How to Turn Solar ‘Considerers’ Into Solar Adopters.” GreenTech Media (blog), June 20, 2016. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/How-to-Turn-Solar-Considerers-Into-Solar-Adopters.

• Initiative for Energy Justice. “Section 1: Defining Energy Justice: Connections to Environmental Justice, Climate Justice, and the Just Transition,” December 2019. https://iejusa.org/section-1-defining-energy-justice/.

• Katie Luu, Scott Burger. “The Economics of Rooftop Solar.” MIT Energy Initiatve. Accessed January 30, 2022. https://energy.mit.edu/podcast/the-economics-of-rooftop-solar/.

• Smith, Aidan, Danilo Morales, and Jen Stevenson Zepeda. Exploring Environmental Justice: Energy Justice in the Boston Area. Interview by Gabriela Boscio Santos and Neha Chinwalla. Zoom, April 21, 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prKBKUhYcoA.

• Sommer, Lauren. “What Losing Build Back Better Means for Climate Change.” NPR, December 20, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/12/20/1065695953/build-back-better-climate-change.

• Baker, Charles, D., Karyn Polito E., Kathleen Theoharides A., and Martin Suuberg. “Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level: 1990 Baseline Update.” MGL Chapter 21N, Section 3. Commonwealth of Massachusetts Executive Ofice of Energy & Environmental Affairs, Department of Environmental Protection, May 2021. https://www.mass.gov/doc/statewide-greenhouse-gas-emissions-level-proposed-1990-baseline-update-including-appendices-a-b/download.

• United States Environmental Protection Agency. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle,” March 2018. https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle#:~:text=typical%20passenger%20vehicle%3F-,A%20typical%20passenger%20vehicle%20emits%20about%204.6%20metric%20tons%20of,8%2C887%20grams%20of%20CO2.

• AN ACT RELATIVE TO GREEN COMMUNITIES, Pub. L. No. Chapter 169, § 138. Accessed January 31, 2022. https://malegislature.gov/laws/sessionlaws/acts/2008/chapter169.

• EnergySage Local Data. “Community Solar in Massachusetts.” Accessed January 31, 2022. https://www.energysage.com/local-data/community-solar/ma/.

• Dong, Changgui, and Benjamin Sigrin. “Using Willingness to Pay to Forecast the Adoption of Solar Photovoltaics: A ‘Parameterization + Calibration’ Approach.” Energy Policy 129, no. June 2019: 100–110. Accessed January 29, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.02.017.

Use Instructions

To replicate this project on your local machine with anaconda, enter the following command in a terminal window:

conda create --name myenv --file requirements.txt

Where myenv is the name of your local environment. Then clone this repository to edit and run the code.